San Diego Housing Market (2023 Statistics & Forecast)

San Diego Housing Market 2023

Updated March 1st 2023

2023 is looking to be be modestly recessionary, with the Feds near the top of interest rate increases. As
the Democrats prepare for the 2024 election, pressure will come from the White House and Senate to reduce mortgage rates and inflation. The majority of inflation was related to supply problems related to shipping and computer chips as well as gas prices.Homeowner equity has almost doubled In the past decade home equity has doubled and 1/3 of all San Diego homeowners are morgage free. While residential construction will decline 20-25%, non residential construction will continue without pause: six new hospitals, life sciences, military, educational, and apartment construction.

We are not only seeing signs of inflation coming down, but clear signs of DEFLATION:
1. Rental prices soared through Summer 2022, but have scaled back starting in October. Check out the rental price reductions on Zillow Rentals!

2. There are small to substantial price reductions depending on the community, location, and price band with seller negotiations, repairs, and seller paid closing costs again.

3. After many months of under-supply and soaring prices there is now a chip surplus.

4. Tesla and Ford price cuts

5. Lumber traded over $600 in June 2022 is now down over 16% around $500.

6. Crude oil is down 30% from $115 to about $80.

7. Over-stocked retail is now on sale.

8. Wage growth is slowing.

9. Whole Foods is reportedly asking suppliers to help the chain lower grocery prices.

US December inflation was down over 28.5% in just 6 months around 6.5%. The Fed’s preferred measure, Core PCE inflation rose 4.4% from a year ago, its smallest annual increase since October 2021. Consumer spending dipped 0.2%. Thousands have lost jobs.

This week the median list price for San Diego, CA is $1,199,000 with the market action index hovering around 48. 

Home sales continue to outstrip supply and the Market Action Index has been moving higher for several weeks. This is a Seller’s market so watch for upward pricing pressure in the near future if the trend continues.

Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.

The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

San Diego Real Estate Market

San Diego real estate market data for single-family homes priced under $1M compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The average total market time was 42 days up 100% 
• The absorption rate is 0.7 months up 16.7%  
• The average price per square foot is $489 down 5.8%.  There were 600 new listings down 48%.
• There were 664 total pending sales down 36.9% and 589 total sold down 31.9%

San Diego real estate market data for single-family homes priced $1,000,000-$2,000,000 compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The average total market time was 40 days up 81.8% 
• The absorption rate is 1 months up 25%  
• The average price per square foot is $602 down 6.2%.  There were 338 new listings down 42.7%.
• There were 375 total pending sales down 23% and 313 total sold down 31.4%

San Diego real estate market data for single-family homes priced $2,000,000-$3,000,000 compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The average total market time was 38 days up 81% 
• The absorption rate is up 100% at 1.6 months
• The average price per square foot is $874 down 1.8%.  There were 95 new listings down 13.6%.
• There were 83 total pending sales down 16.2% and 45 total sold down 45.1%

San Diego real estate market data for single-family homes priced $3,000,000-$5,000,000 compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The average market time was 74 days up 164.3%  
• The absorption rate is up 61.1% at 2.9 months
• The average price per square foot is $963 down 9.9%.  There were 54 new listings down 34.9%.
• There were 38 total pending sales down 32.1% and 19 total sold down 67.8%  

San Diego condo market data for all condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced under $1M compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The average market time was 39 days up 116.7%.
• The absorption rate is up 60% at 0.8 month.
• The average price per square foot is $533 down 3.1%. There were 555 new listings down 43.7%
• There were 595 total pending sales down 30.9% and 480 total sold condos down 36.6%

San Diego condo market data for all condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced $1M-$2M compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The average market time was 38 days up 100%.
• The absorption rate is up 33.3% at 1.2 months.
• The average price per square foot is $807 down 4.4%. There were 89 new listings down 25.8%
• There were 83 total pending sales down 1.2% and 55 total sold condos down 39.6%

San Diego condo market data for all condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced $2M-$3M compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The average market time was 14 days down 57.6%.
• The absorption rate is at 0% at 2.7 months.
• The average price per square foot is $1,295 up 17.4%. There were 19 new listings down 26.9%
• There were 13 total pending sales down 44.4% and 9 total sold condos down 40%

San Diego condo market data for all condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced $3M-$5M compares February 2023 from February 2022

• The absorption rate is up 11.4% at 3.9 months.
• The average price per square foot is $1,544 down 1.2%. There were 7 new listings  
• There were 4 total pending sales down 42.9%
• There was 3 total sold condos down 66.7%

December 2022
This week the Fed indicated a slowing of their massive interest rate hikes just in time for the holidays!  The impact of rates rising so quickly has caused a nationwide housing market contraction.  In San Diego, prices of single family homes and condos and townhomes are up about 50% from five years ago.  

Buyers are on the sidelines hoping rates come down as mortgage rates have more than doubled compared to this time last year.  A large percentage of sellers are in "wait and see" mode watching demand continue to weaken and unwilling to trade their current 3% and lower rate for significantly higher borrowing costs for a move up.  Heading into the new year pendings and closed sales are continuing their downward trend with closed sales down 46.8 percent for single family homes and 46.7 percent for condos and townhomes with pendings down 45.5% for single family and 48.5% for condos/townhomes.  Single family homes median sales price was up 3.4% $885,000 and 1.6% for $599,500 condos/townhomes.

August 1st 2022 

As expected interest rate increases are to blame for San Diego real estate sales down one-third year over year. Prices of sold homes increased 13% for single-family and 16% for condos and townhomes. New listings were down as homeowners were in a “wait and see” freeze. 

Soaring costs + 19.8% and declining housing affordability - 16.8% new home builds are slowing, builder confidence is at a two year low reported by the Commerce Department. Comparing August 2021 through July 2022, pending San Diego sales were down 17.3% from 12 months prior. Pending home prices over $5M increased 19.8%. Condos and townhome prices increased 19.4%. Inventory was up 21.7% for all price points and residential property types. San Diego almost has two months supply of single family homes with only 1.5 months supply of townhomes and condos.

July 5th 2022

Increasing inflation, soaring home prices, mortgage interest rates moving up to 6% (and over depending on the loan product), and declines in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets have caused a nationwide cooling of demand. The federal reserve increased rates by 3/4 of a point in June in a response to May's 8.6% inflation reading which is the largest one-time interest rate increase since 1994. June all San Diego single family home sales were down 35.5% with pending down 39.8% and sales down 33.1% for condos and townhomes with pending down 37%. However, homes priced over $5M were up 29.7%

Single family homes in San Diego had an inventory increase of 25% with a 6% increase for condos/townhomes. San Diego's median sales price was up 12.8 percent to for single family homes and 16.0 percent for condos and townhomes while monthly mortgage payments have increased 50% year over year....

This week the median list price for San Diego, CA is $1,250,000 with the market action index hovering around 78.  This is less than last month's market action index of 85.  Inventory has increased to 724. Inventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.

June 1st, 2022 

Single family detached home sales decreased 18.4% while condos and townhomes are down 14.4 percent with an increase in inventory of 2% for single family and 22.3% for condos/townhomes. Median sales prices were up 15.1% for single family with a 5% decrease in days on market and sales prices up 22.3% for condos/townhomes with a 11.1% decrease in days on market . Single family home inventory increased 20% for single family & 10% condos/townhomes. May pending sales decreased 22.8% for single family homes and 19.6% for condos/townhomes indicating a probable decrease in June closed home sales for San Diego.

This week the median list price for San Diego, CA is $1,198,000 with the market action index hovering around 95.  This is an increase over last month's market action index of 89. Inventory has increased to 365.  

Home sales continue to outstrip supply and the Market Action Index has been moving higher for several weeks. This is a Seller’s market so watch for upward pricing pressure in the near future if the trend continues.

Listings for single family homes declined by 15.8% and condos/townhomes declined 9.3% in April. We have to assume the inventory problem is directly related to the sharp rise in interest rates and the lack of any move-up product. Closings in April were down 18% for single family homes and 27% for condos and townhomes.

When looking at monthly indicators, the days on market to closing are relatively the same, but inventory has a staggering difference, 20% less for single family homes and 36% for condos/townhomes. May's closings will most likely reflect an 18-20% decline with pending sales down 18.9% and condos/townhomes down 18.7%.

The highest level since 2011, Freddie Mac reported the average 30 year fixed rate was above 5% for April.  Mortgage applications are down, and some buyers have stepped out of the market.  Leading indicators suggest competition for homes may be cooling somewhat.

Will house prices drop in San Diego 2022?

It's unlikely San Diego housing prices will drop next year in 2022 and highly likely prices will have increased over 10% from 2021.

Is San Diego in a housing bubble?

The 2005 bubble was a combination of irresponsible borrowing, high-risk lending, and rampant loan fraud.  Loan underwriting over the past 13-14 years has been responsible and prudent, mortgage rates are less than half of what they were in 05, and we have an imbalance of for-sale homes and demand.

Homeowners need three factors to be evident in order to make the difficult decision to walk away from their home and let it go into foreclosure (creating a housing bubble).

1. They need to expect that they'll never be able to afford this mortgage payment.

2. They need to be upside down, owe more on the loan than the house is worth.

3. They need to expect that they'll never be able to sell the house.

Demand is the factor to understand when predicting future foreclosure.  There is record equity growing each day and homeowners can sell within days to 2 weeks.

San Diego Real Estate

Research real estate market trends and find San Diego real estate.  Search for newly listed homes, open houses, recently sold homes, and recent price reductions in San Diego County. To change how the search is displayed, click the gray button next to "Sort" to display houses by price, number of bedrooms, or days on the market.

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Available San Diego Homes

There are two kinds of booming housing markets that emerged during the pandemic years:

1. The Transitory Boom Markets.
2. The Longterm Boom Markets.They are different. Let's explore both.

1. The Transitory Boom MarketsWhen COVID hit hard, many people re-evaluated - often hastily - where and how they wanted to live. Some of these people were highly reactionary expecting the very worst and an extended  global meltdown. Many immediately surmised that viral infection and death rates would be far higher in urban centers where the concentration of people was higher. This theory proved to be inaccurate. Some surmised that they could only live forever on a farm or a beach cottage or mountain hut without ever having explored that lifestyle. Many of these reactionaries have sinces realized their thoughts and aspirations were out of touch with their reality and they are re-visiting where they wish to live yet again. Some markets that experienced this insurgence of a new audience were unprepared and under-supplied and home prices surged at levels few thought sustainable. Some of these areas will erode some or most of these gains of the past 2 years.

2.  The Longterm Boom MarketsCOVID also triggered something that had been missing in the markets: the urgency to accelerate plans that had been mulled over but not acted on for some time:  retirement, a move to the suburbs, a move to a city, or smaller city, a move for political reasons, a move for lower state taxation, a move to a warmer or cooler climate, etc. These moves, while accelerated, causing exaggerated home price spikes, are less susceptible to big price declines. I'd suspect this arena re-balances, but with much less vigor than other markets and it's possible these areas may continue to see price appreciation, mostly fueled by under-supply, but equally by continued, growing demand.

This is but one more reason to examine markets individually in a hyper-localized housing world.

Speaking of inflation: it's nothing new. It - and other kinds of inflation (LUXE-FLATION) - have impacted our markets for decades. Right now it is very high fueled by explosive demand out of balance with supply chain recovery issues, under-production of energy resources, labor shortages, lots of cheap capital....and rampantly rising rents fueled by under-building.

The real estate market forecast shows signs of a somewhat slower bloom. Accounts of less crowded open houses, fewer private showing requests, longer days on market, and fewer offers on new listings are becoming more common. Due to the inherent time lag from a buyer's offer acceptance to a successful close of escrow, we are unlikely to see any significant statistical changes in the market until later in Q3.

When an overheated market starts to lose steam, (last seen in both 2020 and 2016), leading indicators start to reflect the shift with fewer multiple offers, gradual increases in available inventory and days on market, and a plateau of year-over-year appreciation rates.

As we've seen in prior downturns, after the downturn runs it's course, home prices begin to accelerate often quickly above the previous peaks. Buyers should be ready to take advantage of a slowing market and sellers it's more important than ever to prepare your home to shine in it's best light and price correctly.

2023 Statistics and Forecast

San Diego buyers are worried are they are buying at the top?

San Diego sellers are worried have they missed the top, is it too late?

Property Shark just published their top 100 list of the most expensive housing markets with Rancho Santa Fe #18 followed by Coronado and Del Mar.

As of December 4th nationwide initial job claims were 184,000, virtually the same as pre-COVID (a great indicator of the overall economy) San Diego County is up 61,600 jobs since last October with leisure and hospitality jobs still lagging pre-Covid levels. The nationwide unemployment rate will end the year at around 4%.

Since November 2020, resale prices in San Diego County have advanced by 18.5%, following a pattern of recent months. With low cost of borrowing and high equity, right now is a really good time to move up and keep your prior primary as a rental property. This trend has played into inventory falling each year, year over year.

Construction costs are out of control with a labor shortage. Lumber prices have increased to more than $1,000 per 1,000 board feet from $300 per 1,000 board feet. Fixtures like plumbing, lighting, and appliances are stuck on ships (most are manufactured overseas.) More than 1.7 million units of new single family residences, condos, and apartments were underway in 2021 with the highest production level since the last great recession. 2022 expects production of 1.5M-1.7M units with a return to more normal once backlogs are filled. The recently approved Federal Public Works legislation will contribute to a significant increase in non residential construction primarily in the public sector.

6.46 million existing single family homes and condomiums sold in 2021, a decade high with the supply reduced to 3.1 months. Residential real estate purchases made by investors were surprisingly high with more than a quarter of homes sold to investors in 2021. With a very very tight supply of available homes and mortgage rates rising, resales will decline to between 5M-5.5M.

When the Feds begin to increase the discount rate, there will be an immediate effect on the 10-year T-bill. The 10-year T-bill determines mortgage rates. It's expected mortgage interest rates will be 3.75%-4% by the end of 2022. With increasing home prices affordability will be affected.

Residential new construction for San Diego in 2022 will add approximately 9,000 housing units. The nonresidential sector will be explosive with government-funded projects:

• New Terminal 1 at the airport
• New border crossing in Otay Mesa
• Continued military spending
• Highway construction.
• Continued development of life sciences and industrial space

2021 we had an average of 2.75% 30 year fixed mortgage rates, $842,000 median single-family home price, an increase of 18.6%. Condos and townhomes $545,176 median home price and an increase of 18.5%.  Home price appreciation for San Diego County is anticipated to be 8%.